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2017-06-12 Photovoltaic growth: reality versus projections of the IEA – the 2017 update

Auke Hoekstra

Update for 2017: the IEA is once again predicting the solar industry will stop growing. As you can see in the updated graph, yearly additions are still increasing rapidly but again the prediction of the IEA is flat. Fortunately many sources are noticing this or using “my” method for showing how far the IEA is off the mark. Examples here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here. I hope the criticism will grow exponentially until the IEA learns.

2011-06-08 The Case Against Nuclear Power

The critical issue for nuclear power is the consequences of a major radioactive release. These were predicted in the Sandia CRAC-2 study as 42,000 to 100,000 early deaths. They were confirmed empirically by Chernobyl, which contaminated huge areas of the Ukraine, Belarus and Russia as well as 40% of Europe, with an eventual death toll put variously at 10,000 up to 1.8 million. Due to the high population density, Fukushima has been predicted to cause up to 210,000 excess cancer deaths. The probability of any size of radioactive release is not just unknown but unknowable, so must be taken as 1 - i.e. inevitable. This was understood by the worldwide insurance industry from the start and by some involved in the Reactor Safety Studies as well as by independent analysts. If insurance was fully paid, the cost of nuclear power would increase by e.g. 45 to 348 p/kWh. Other countries are adopting safer, sustainable and infinitely cheaper solutions for supplying electrical and other energy services so there is no need to add to our already huge nuclear risks and debts. Moreover the consequences of a major radioactive release are completely unacceptable, so all existing nuclear plants should be phased out forthwith.

2010-09 Energy Resources and Rates for Depletables and Renewables

I produced a presentation showing that the peak discovery of depletable fuels, such as oil, gas, coal and uranium, occurs some 35 years before peak production, so giving ample warning.

2016-09-15 Hinkley C nuclear go-ahead: May caves in to pressure from France and China

The French and the Chinese may be celebrating the UK's decision to press ahead with the Hinkley C 'nuclear white elephant', writes Oliver Tickell. But the deal is a disaster for the UK, committing us to overpriced power for decades to come, and to a dirty, dangerous, insecure dead end technology. Just one silver lining: major economic, legal and technical hurdles mean it still may never be built.

2007-08-13 Response to 'Planning for a Sustainable Future'

In response to the UK Government White Paper 'Planning for a Sustainable Future' of May 2007 I submitted two documents.
The first consists of the consultation questions and my answers.
The second is grouped into topics.

2011-03-11 Fukushima - My Documents

On 2011-03-11, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan was damaged by a major earthquake and tsunami. The three operating reactors overheated, leading to hydrogen explosions and radioactive releases, which necessitated progressively wider evacuations of the populace. In the weeks that followed, it became clear that Reactors 1 to 3 and the spent fuel pools of Reactors 1 to 4 had the potential for far greater radioactive releases.

2016-09-09 New tool can calculate renewable energy output anywhere in the world

Researchers have created an interactive web tool to estimate the amount of energy that could be generated by wind or solar farms at any location. The tool, called Renewables.ninja, aims to make the task of predicting renewable output easier for both academics and industry. The creators, from Imperial College London and ETH Zürich, have already used it to estimate current Europe-wide solar and wind output, and companies such as the German electrical supplier RWE are using it to test their own models of output.

2007-10-09 Response to the Nuclear Consultation

'The Government published a nuclear Consultation Document, THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN A LOW CARBON UK ECONOMY, May 2007.

2007-07-03 Energy Criteria for Sustainable Energy Solutions

I was invited to give a presentation with this title at the European Sustainable Energy Forum 2007, in Lucerne, Switzerland.

2016-09-07 Quantifying the Narrowing Net-energy Pathways to a Global Energy Transition

Sgouris Sgouridis et al

'Planning the appropriate renewable energy (RE) installation rate should balance two partially contradictory objectives: substituting fossil fuels fast enough to stave-off the worst consequences of climate change while maintaining a sufficient net energy flow to support the world’s economy. The upfront energy invested in constructing a RE infrastructure subtracts from the net energy available for societal energy needs, a fact typically neglected in energy projections. Modeling feasible energy transition pathways to provide different net energy levels we find that they are critically dependent on the fossil fuel emissions cap and phase-out profile and on the characteristic energy return on energy invested of the RE technologies. The easiest pathway requires installation of RE plants to accelerate from 0.12 TW p yr –1 in 2013 to peak between 7.3 and 11.6 TW p yr –1 in the late 2030s, for an early or a late fossil-fuel phase-out respectively, in order for emissions to stay within the recommended CO 2 budget’.

So the early fossil-fuel phase-out requires the installation of RE plants to accelerate by 7.3/0.12 = 61-fold and the late phase-out by 11.6/0.12 = 97-fold. Further delay would mean that there is no solution.

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