2021-06-09 The Futility of Fusion - A Dream Too Far
Nuclear fusion power on earth poses extreme technical challenges.
One is the attainment of at least 100 million degrees C for long enough to produce net energy.
Another is that any power plant fuelled with Deuterium and Tritium must 'breed' enough Tritium to sustain itself.
Yet fusion power is futile because it cannot be deployed at a meaningful scale before 2050.
This is the target date for Zero Carbon - hopefully limiting Global Warming to less than 2 C.
So by this date all energy must be supplied from proven renewable sources such as Solar Photovoltaics, Wind Power, Hydro Power, sustainable Biomass and Solar and Deep Geothermal Heat.
From the Presentation:
Fusion Conclusions - 1
• Safety: like fission, fusion generates radioactivity, where energy savings, solar PV, wind and storage do not.
• Fusion power plants with TBR say 1.25, Q say 10, and competitive COE have yet to be demonstrated.
• For a Doubling Time of 5 y, the exponential growth period from 1 GWe to 1 TWe would be about 50 years
• If the Doubling Time is less than (Construction Time + EPT), then during the exponential growth period,
the Net Energy Production is negative and the Return on Investment is zero
Fusion Conclusions – 2
• Learning: fission is negative but PV and wind positive
• Fusion power has several very well-informed critics. Most have worked for decades in fusion research
• Energy saving and efficiency could reduce energy demand – and thus GHG emissions - by up to 85%
• Spending money, time, energy, GHG and talent on fusion means less for energy use, PV, wind and storage
• So fusion power is not just futile in itself, but actually counterproductive in addressing the climate crisis
Fusion Conclusions – 3
• Energy savings and renewables avoid the risk of human harm from tritium leaks and other radioactive components
• They also leave no radioactive waste for future generations
• Rather they offer huge opportunities to investors and employees, and can certainly meet the climate challenge
• They work in every country and improve resilience
• This brings satisfaction and rewards to both investors and employees
Nuclear fusion power on earth poses extreme technical challenges.
One is the attainment of at least 100 million degrees C for long enough to produce net energy.
Another is that any power plant fuelled with Deuterium and Tritium must 'breed' enough Tritium to sustain itself.
Yet fusion power is futile because it cannot be deployed at a meaningful scale before 2050.
This is the target date for Zero Carbon - hopefully limiting Global Warming to less than 2 C.
So by this date all energy must be supplied from proven renewable sources such as Solar Photovoltaics, Wind Power, Hydro Power, sustainable Biomass and Solar and Deep Geothermal Heat.
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